Browse by Category
About Camilla Culley
Circular References
Financial Modelling Principles
General Interest
Technical
-
The World Population will be 8,369,094,344 in 2027.
The World Population will be 8,369,094,344 in 2027. Google says so. -
Five Puzzles in Project Finance Models
Here are five areas of project finance models which always puzzle me: -
In Memory of Daniel Kahneman
The great psychologist Daniel Kahneman has died, aged 90. His masterpiece, Thinking, Fast and Slow, is the book which makes us think about how we think. -
Why the Basics Matter
A concert pianist would never be able to play with such skill if they didn’t know their scales and arpeggios. -
Top Five Modelling Rules and Top Tips
Here are my top five financial modelling key rules and top tips: -
How Accurate is your Financial Model?
Maybe you are confident that it is correct and you are happy, for example, to “debt size” an exact number correct to two decimal places and present that as an ... -
Why I Care About Apostrophe’s
It pained me to put an incorrect apostrophe in the title. -
Junaid Mubeen’s Mathematical Intelligence
Or what we have that machines don’t. -
Let’s Talk About Circularity
I previously posted a circular reference survey: -
Do We Ask Enough Questions About Models?
Have you ever thought the following when looking at a model? -
What is Excel Proficient?
One of my recent attendees admitted that he has written that he is proficient in Excel on his CV. But, he said “all I can really do is to copy”. -
Christmas List 2022
Here is what is on my Christmas list and these books should appeal to other financial modellers too: -
Marginal Gains
Cycling teams are famous for their marginal gains. Small incremental improvements in any process amount to a significant improvement when they are added together. -
Why Human Fallibility Causes Financial Modelling Problems
Of course we make mistakes. We are, after all, only human. -
How to be an Efficient Financial Modeller: Consign your Mouse to the Bin
Musicians know that the way forward is to practise their scales. It’s just the same with shortcuts in financial modelling. -
In Praise of a Portuguese Lunch
In my experience, lunch is taken seriously in Portugal. -
What is Wrong With the IF Function?
To paraphrase George Orwell, never use a long formula when a short one will do. -
Would You Check Your Phone Whilst Driving?
We all hope that the answer to that is no. -
Masterclass in Infrastructure and Project Finance
I’m very much looking forward to contributing, along with a panel of industry experts, to a brand new Masterclass in Infrastructure and Project Finance, hosted by IJGlobal and Euromoney Learning. -
Why Does Timing Matter in Financial Models?
Because incorrect timing assumptions are the cause of many a financial modelling error. -
Modelling Inflation
Inflation rates in many countries have not been as high as they are today for many years. Problems indeed for companies and policy makers. But what about for financial modellers? -
“The only certainty is that nothing is certain.” Pliny the Elder
It is January again, time for the annual round of predictions. Most headlines talk about what “will” happen. Whatever happened to the word “may”? In an age when we crave ... -
My Tips for What a Financial Modeller Needs to Do Over Christmas
Resting, thinking and puzzling. -
Please Join In: The Circular Reference Survey
Intrigued about circular references and why some modellers might include them? Or why some models are switched to iteration? Or why some models include copy paste iterative macros? I am. -
Why I Don’t Approve of Copy Paste Iterative Macros and Why It Matters
If you are a financial modeller who uses copy paste iterative macros to calculate, then please read on. -
Why I Don’t Approve of Iteration and Why It Matters
If you are a financial modeller who uses iteration to calculate your models, then please read on. -
“If I had an hour to solve a problem, I would spend 55 minutes thinking about the problem and five minutes thinking about solutions.” Albert Einstein
This is precisely why financial modellers need to take holidays. And on those holidays, they need to relax and let their minds wander and be able to indulge in the ... -
Can You Teach an Old Dog New Tricks?
I have been retraining my 9-year old dog. There were too many bad habits and we had rather given up with her. However, we have been working hard on changing ... -
Do You Really Need Macros to Size Debt?
In my attempt to rid financial models of copy paste iterative macros, probably the biggest resistance I come across is on the subject of debt sizing, especially when sculpting is ... -
Tim Harford’s How to Make the World Add Up
Everyone, and especially modellers, should read Tim Harford’s book, How to Make the World Add Up. The aim of the book is to encourage people to understand statistical truths and ... -
“You Don’t Need Training”
So said my boss when I wanted to do a negotiation skills course. I tried to tell him that if I could not persuade him to let me take the ... -
“Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication” Leonardo da Vinci
I found a formula in a financial model once which had 62 sets of brackets, 16 functions and 60 cells (there are plenty like this around). -
How to Test a Financial Modeller
What are the skills financial modellers need? -
On Modelling Myths
Have you been told that interest is circular? -
I am Converted
Don’t panic, I am not about to start advocating circular references or copy paste iterative macros. -
A Financial Modeller’s Christmas List 2020
Three ideas this year: -
Why are Excel Spreadsheets so Dangerous?
The news that more than 15,000 positive UK Covid cases became lost in a “technical glitch”, apparently due to Public Health England using old Excel software (which only has around ... -
Do your Models Include Circular References?
I have lost count of the number of times that I have been told that financial models should not include circular references, except for “special situations” caused by the complexity ... -
The Essentials of Financial Modelling – a Pocket-sized Book
I am really happy to announce that I have produced a pocket-sized book, The Essentials of Financial Modelling. It is designed for financial modellers to have by their desks for ... -
On Financial Modelling, Apples, Baths and Fishing Trips
How do financial modellers get inspiration? Generally not, I feel, by looking at spreadsheets. -
Safe Surgery and Financial Modelling
What medical advance in 2008 has been shown to reduce the rate of deaths and complications in surgery by as much as one-third? -
All Models Are Wrong, but Some Are Useful
So said statistician George Box. -
Stress Testing
Many financial models will be being stress tested right now, with assumptions being included which no one ever dreamt of. -
Some Questions for Financial Modellers
What are your answers to these questions? -
On Superforecasters and Uncertainty
With superforecasters in and out of 10 Downing Street and the imminent publication of “Radical Uncertainty” by economist John Kay and former governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, ... -
The Top New Year’s Resolution for Financial Modellers
What should be the top New Year’s resolution for financial modellers? -
A Financial Modeller’s Christmas List 2019
Christmas is fast approaching and here are a few ideas for books which should appeal to financial modellers: -
How to Spot a Potential Financial Modeller
What would I look for if I was recruiting a financial modeller? -
How Many Female Financial Modellers are There?
As October 8th this year is Ada Lovelace Day when women involved in STEM (science, technology, engineering and maths) are celebrated, I thought it would be a good time to ... -
Naming Cells
Here are some of the ways in which names can be used in Excel: -
August Holiday Quotes
It is August, holiday season and time perhaps to step back and think about the big picture of financial modelling. -
Balancing Balance Sheets
I wonder what percentage of a financial modeller’s time is used trying to balance Balance Sheets? Here are some tips which will hopefully speed up this process: -
Top Ten Quick Model Checks
Here are the top ten checks I would recommend if you receive a financial model and need to get an initial feel for it, without doing a complete review: -
On NPVs and IRRs
What are Net Present Values (NPVs) and Internal Rates of Return (IRRs)? Rather than reaching for complicated definitions, I prefer to explain them in terms of a loan schedule or ... -
Five Key Rules and Five Top Tips
What to do and what not to do in financial modelling? As you might expect, there are many opinions on this and long lists of dos and don’ts. -
Shortcuts
Here’s a link to a pdf file with the useful Excel shortcuts. Please use them, they make modelling far more efficient. Useful Shortcut Keys -
Three Logical Ratio Checks
I enjoy teaching ratios and results on my financial modelling courses almost as much as trying to trap participants into making circular references. -
On Forecasting
Think about the famous question of the bat and ball costing £1.10. The bat costs £1 more than the ball. How much does each cost? -
A Financial Modeller’s Christmas List 2018
Christmas is fast approaching. As my family and friends know, there is nothing I love more as a present than a book which has something to do with mathematics or ... -
Four Training Methods for Financial Modelling
What type of financial modelling training is most suitable and cost-effective? Excel is a dangerous tool in the wrong hands and financial modelling is complex, technical and comes with a ... -
Six Worst Modelling Habits
Of course, there are different ways of approaching financial modelling. But here are the six worst modelling habits: -
The East Coast Rail Bid – What Happened?
Last week, the UK’s Transport Select Committee of MPs said that the bid by Virgin and Stagecoach to run the East Coast rail franchise was “wholly inadequate and naïve”. The ... -
Financial Modelling and Holidays
When I watch sport, I think of Excel shortcuts. When I am on a long walk, I think of circular references. -
Circular References: The Facts
Circular references are the biggest challenge in financial modelling. Here’s a summary of the different types and common ways of dealing with them. -
Avoiding Black Boxes #3: Functions Part 2
My mission is to demystify financial models. Models should never be black boxes: they are simply made up of many layers, which themselves must always be clear and logical. Poor ... -
Avoiding Black Boxes #3: Functions Part 1
My mission is to demystify financial models. Models should never be black boxes: they are simply made up of many layers, which themselves must always be clear and logical. Poor ... -
Avoiding Black Boxes #2: Model Layout
My mission is to demystify financial models. Models should never be black boxes: they are simply made up of many layers, which themselves must always be clear and logical. Good ... -
Avoiding Black Boxes #1: Structuring Formulae
Not surprisingly, financial models are frequently described as black boxes. -
Financial Modelling Quiz
Here are some common statements about financial modelling. Which ones do you agree with? -
Macros: Yes or No?
What are macros and are they a hindrance or a help in financial modelling? -
A Financial Modeller’s Christmas List 2017
In last year’s Financial Modeller’s Christmas List, I requested the GCHQ puzzle book and gratefully received three copies. -
Avoiding IF Functions #3: Using CHOOSE or INDEX
As part of my mission to encourage modellers to reduce reliance on the IF function, this month’s blog looks at situations when either CHOOSE or INDEX with MATCH can replace ... -
Avoiding IF Functions #2: Using MIN and MAX
As part of my mission to encourage modellers to reduce reliance on the IF function, this month’s blog looks at how MAX and MIN can replace IF. -
Avoiding IF Functions #1: Logical Statements
IF. Perhaps the most commonly used Excel function in financial modelling. My early models were almost entirely created around this function. There is nothing intrinsically wrong with an IF function. ... -
Usain Bolt and Excel Shortcuts
Whilst watching international athletes competing in the world athletics championships, I cannot help but think about Excel shortcuts. Sad, but true. -
What Can Financial Modellers Learn From Karl Popper and Matthew Syed?
Philosopher of science Karl Popper believed that science’s attitude to failure sparked the scientific revolution. -
Is Education Worthwhile?
“The people we employ are so intelligent, we don’t need to train them.” (Investment banker, 2007) Should I have been surprised at this comment, made to me when I said ... -
Top Financial Modelling Tips
How complicated is financial modelling? -
On Spreadsheet Phil
As the UK’s Chancellor of the Exchequer prepares his first budget, I thought it was worth reflecting on his nickname “Spreadsheet Phil”. -
Locksmiths and Financial Modellers
I recently heard Dan Ariely, Professor of Psychology and Behavioural Economics from Duke University, discussing a conversation he had had with a locksmith. -
Financial Modelling Thoughts for the New Year
As we begin another new year, perhaps the following quotes may give some food for thought for financial modellers: -
A Financial Modeller’s Christmas List 2016
As Christmas approaches, financial modellers are perhaps looking forward to a break away from balancing balance sheets and eliminating circular references. However I suspect that most would enjoy tackling logic ... -
Projections, Elections and Financial Models
Now that the American elections are over and once again the predictions made by the vast majority of pollsters have been shown to be inaccurate, it seems a good time ... -
Elite Athletes and Financial Modellers
As we celebrate the achievements of Olympic and Paralympic athletes it is interesting to think about how they have achieved their success. It seems to me that there should be parallels with ... -
Ada Lovelace and Financial Modelling
11th October is Ada Lovelace Day, celebrating the achievements of women in science, technology, engineering and maths. Ada Lovelace (born 1815), the daughter of Lord Byron, collaborated with Charles Babbage ... -
Why should circular references and iterative macros not be used?
To me the most challenging (and interesting) aspect of financial modelling is the eradication of circular references. A circular reference is caused when a cell is calculated by looking at ... -
Key Principles of Financial Modelling
Financial modelling is about far more than just being proficient in Excel. There are numerous modelling techniques which can cause inaccurate and unstable models and which unfortunately are common practice. Here ... -
Why Choose Camilla Culley?
What makes your courses different? My emphasis is on logic and clarity. I focus on training participants how to develop the skills and thought processes necessary for financial modelling, with ...