In last year’s Financial Modeller’s Christmas List, I requested the GCHQ puzzle book and gratefully received three copies.
Some of the puzzles are undoubtedly quirky but they have kept me entertained. I reserved one of my spare copies to give to the first person in 2017 who managed to get through one of my financial modelling courses without a circular reference. It was not claimed until November.
For financial modellers wanting a break from spreadsheets over Christmas perhaps the following ideas might appeal: a bit of history, philosophy and, naturally, some more puzzles.
History
Peter Frankopan’s bestseller, The Silk Roads: A New History of the World, looks at history with Central Asia at its heart and an interesting focus on infrastructure. A fascinating read for any project financier, particularly anyone involved in the One Belt One Road initiatives across Central Asia.
Philosophy
Nassim Taleb’s The Black Swan should, I think, be compulsory reading for financial modellers. Taleb is a philosopher of risk and constantly reiterates that we cannot predict the future. I find, therefore, that his books have much to say about the subject of circular references of the crystal ball gazing variety. Especially around Christmas time we should remember the turkeys who will currently be thinking that they will always be fed, but will shortly be faced with an unexpected revision of belief: their “Black Swan” event.
Puzzles
No Christmas holiday would be complete without grappling with puzzles. This year I have my eye on Bletchley Park Brainteasers. However, whilst browsing in a book shop, I couldn’t resist buying the Penguin Book of Puzzles. One from this book:
On one side of a street, the house numbers start with 1,2,3 and continue for more than 50 houses but fewer than 500. What is the number of the house where the numbers to the left of the house add up to the same as the numbers to the right of the house? And how many houses are there on that side of the street?
Hopefully this puzzle will appeal. After all, problem solving is what financial modelling is all about.